Analysis: 'Pause' to end for forces in Donbas, as both sides regroup

Synopsis

In the last 48 hours, there has been very busy targeting across Ukraine, largely focused on Nikopol and Vuhledar. This targeting may be part of a terror campaign aimed at civilians, particularly women and children, or it could indicate that Russia is compiling a master target list to disrupt Ukrainian lines of communication. In Kharkiv, Ukrainian forces have pushed back Russian troops, threatening their supply lines. As a result, Russia has intensified its targeting of Kharkiv to deter further Ukrainian advances. The operational pause in the Donbas allows both sides to regroup, with Russia expected to resume its strategy of artillery bombardment before moving troops into key areas like Siversk and Bakhmut. Meanwhile, Ukraine is mounting fierce counter-attacks in Kherson, complicating Russian troop deployments. The ongoing battle for the Donbas sets the stage for future conflicts, particularly with Odessa likely to be the next target after the Donbas is secured.